A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
